LEXINGTON, Mass. (July 28, 2010) – World trade by all modes of transportation – sea, air and land -- will grow 8.1 percent in 2010 and 6.9 percent in 2011, following a 7.2 percent decline in 2009, according to the latest forecast from IHS Global Insight's World Trade Service.
International trade volumes will continue to increase on pace with the global economic recovery, according to the Second Quarter Trends in World Economy and Trade report from the IHS Global Insight World Trade Service.
Containerized trade volumes at the global level are forecast to reach nearly 10.0 percent, with a slightly stronger recovery – 10.6 percent -- on the mainline East-West trade lanes in 2010, before slowing over the next two years. Exports from the Far East to North America and Europe bounced back as importers began to re-stock their depleted inventories as sales growth renewed. While trade growth is projected into 2011 and beyond, the pace is expected to be slower than in 2010. However, 2010 and 2011 will be banner years relative to the hardship the container industry faced in 2008 and 2009 with 3% and -8% growth on TEU volumes, respectively.
World containerized trade measured in 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) increased 9.2 percent in 2010 and is projected to grow at 6.8 percent in 2011.The transatlantic trade lane is comparatively small, although still imbalanced in favor of European exports, and growth rates are susceptible to the moves in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Particularly sensitive are exports from the United States to Europe because of the weaker euro.
The outlook for bulk shipping also is improving following a decline of 2.8 percent in bulk commodity trade in 2009. IHS Global Insight forecasts bulk commodities to grow in 2010 through 2011. The Baltic Dry Index has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year, and seasonal demand should also boost bulk exports over the next quarter.
Dry bulk commodity shipment tonnage, which includes grain, iron ore, and coal, will increase 10.3 percent in 2010 and 8.7 percent in 2011.
Liquid bulk trade, which includes petroleum and liquefied natural gas, has also been growing despite short-term supply issues in the U.S. Gulf Coast. The growth rate for liquid bulk global trade is forecast at 9.9 percent in 2010 and 8.4 percent in 2011. Trade will remain steady, as the oil market remains well-supplied with spare productive capacity of six million barrels per day and ample OECD inventories in 2010.
An executive summary of the forecast, "Trends in World Economy and Trade," is available at www.ihsglobalinsight.com/worldtrade
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About the IHS Global Insight World Trade Service
IHS Global Insight's World Trade Service monitors the complex flow of goods and services around the world, using proprietary databases that provide detailed trade information about modes of transportation and specific commodities. The World Trade Service also offers a complete suite of consulting capabilities that can answer specific questions about international trade and the transportation industry.
About IHS Global Insight
IHS Global Insight (www.ihsglobalinsight.com), an IHS company, provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, IHS Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a leading source of information and insight in pivotal areas that shape today’s business landscape: energy, economics, geopolitical risk, sustainability and supply chain management. Businesses and governments around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS employs more than 4,200 people in more than 30 countries around the world.
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